Monday, March 25, 2013

What do Iran and Finland have in common?


            With the appointing of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s current Prime Minister, as the country’s new defense minister on March 17th, President Obama was prompted to visit Israel last week. An interesting article I found in the Wall Street Journal, published prior to Obama’s visit, outlined the likely topics of discuss and the possible new power dynamic soon to come in the Middle East.
The article is titled Risking the ‘Finlandization’ of the Persian Gulf, with a primary thesis stating, “A nuclear-armed Iran may bring Soviet-style intimidation to the Middle East.” The main topic for discussion during Obama’s visit will be weather time remains to prevent or delay an Iranian bomb and what the consequences would be in failing to do so. This is based on the assumption that Iran has yet to create a nuclear bomb, however this assumption may be flawed.
            Iran’s intentions have been made clear, “to wipe Israel off the map”. Many find this to implausible, but these intentions do not end with Israel. The article continues to discuss the Tehran’s aspiration for domination of the Middle East by tilting the balance of power by converting the Arab and Sunni perspective to the Iranian Persian and Shiite views.
            Finally, the article discusses how Iran has been using the disorder of the Arab revolution to advance this influence in majority Shiite populated areas under Sunni rule. Concluding by drawing the analogy that Iran with nuclear bombs would strongly influence weaker energy-rich neighboring countries, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, in the same way that Germany influenced Finland during the Cold War.
            As our recent class discussions regarding a one-state vs. two-state solution depicted Palestinians as being completely on their own with no support from surrounding Arab nations, this type of power dynamic could eliminate any progress Palestinians have made toward establishing an independent nation state.
            On a side note, I am sure everyone has heard of the financial crisis currently unfolding in Cyprus, which is geographically extremely close to Israel and the rest of the Middle East. One recent piece of news you may not be aware of is where the Russian money currently held in Cyprus banks will be going once the banks reopen. There is rumor that a large portion of this Russian capital could be heading for Israeli banks. If this proves to be true, it will be very interesting to see how the United States will react in both their support of Israel and/or direct involvement in Israeli banking.


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